Today's Picks

-MIN Twins -1.5 (+140) | 0.5 Units

-MIA Marlins v NY Mets Over 7.0 (-105) | 0.25 Units

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers Over 8.5 (-120) | 0.25 Units

-LA Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?

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KC Royals v MIN Twins: Another big plus-money adventure, friends – but I like it too much not to make it Pick of the Day. Minnesota starter Bailey Ober (4.56 ERA) is an impressive 5-0 at home, and is far better on his own turf than his overall ERA suggests. Meanwhile, the Royals actually haven’t lost by 2+ since returning from the All-Star Break, but Kansas City pitcher Noah Cameron (4.93 ERA) is just 1-5 on the road, and 4 of his last 5 starts have resulted in a loss for the Royals. Kansas City managed to shutout the Twins last night, but I won’t be surprised if they return the favour this afternoon. I’m on Minnesota to cover the RL for a nice pay day.

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MIA Marlins v NY Mets: This is a very achievable total for these batting lineups; and to be honest, while both starters have had some solid outings lately, both are also capable of having a meltdown (lol). Worst case scenario I think we get a Push on this one, but I think this matchup goes to 8. I’m on the Over to hit.

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SEA mariners v LA Dodgers: Bryan Woo (4.37 ERA) hasn’t been anywhere near reliable lately enough for me to think this game stays Under 8.5; to boot, the man is a mere 1-7 on the road. I don’t think the Dodgers offense will have any issue putting 5 runs+ on the board here, so I’m doubling down – I’ll take the game total Over to cash, as well as the Dodgers to put more than 4.5 in the bag.

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Coffee, conversation & today’s best bet.

First Sips

Good morning, all! First thing's first: new podcast episode is live – come start Thursday with me! Coffee is still tasting good this morning, as we had a solid betting day yesterday – Picks cashed 2/3, and Player Props hit 2/3. The casualties unfortunately were Pick of the Day and our parlay. If you're on a tier, you made it out of the day relatively decent 😌 Speaking of: my last sale of the entire year ends TODAY! So if you haven’t already, go take advantage of that 40% discount on any tier (get 40% off your first month or entire annual purchase...), with code LASTOF2026 at checkout. Once this sale is gone, things are back at full price for the remainder of 2026, friends! And now, on to today's play...

Pick of the Day

-MIN Twins -1.5 (+140) | 0.5 Units

Another big plus-money adventure, friends – but I like it too much not to make it Pick of the Day. Minnesota starter Bailey Ober (4.56 ERA) is an impressive 5-0 at home, and is far better on his own turf than his overall ERA suggests. Meanwhile, the Royals actually haven’t lost by 2+ since returning from the All-Star Break, but Kansas City pitcher Noah Cameron (4.93 ERA) is just 1-5 on the road, and 4 of his last 5 starts have resulted in a loss for the Royals. Kansas City managed to shutout the Twins last night, but I won’t be surprised if they return the favour this afternoon. I’m on Minnesota to cover the RL for a nice pay day. 

What’s Brewing?

🛒 Belle's Last Sale of 2026

TODAY'S THE LAST DAY, friends – of the LAST sale I'll be running all year. Get 40% off your first month, any annual purchase, or a "Lifetime of Belle" until July 30 at midnight with code: LASTOF2026

🏈 Join our NFL Fantasy League, "Belles of the Ball"!

There are just a couple of spots left, friends. Full disclosure, it's a blast every year, and the cash prize is sizeable. Take a peek. 

— • —

That's all I've got for today's First Cup, friends! 

Best of luck with Pick of the Day – enjoy your coffee. 

X

Belle

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Today's Picks

-HOU Astros v LA Angels Over 9.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers Over 9.5 (-110) | 0.5 Units

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Why These Picks?

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HOU Astros v LA Angels: I almost feel like taking the Over on an Angels game requires little explanation at this point, but in addition to their bullpen being brutal, Grayson Rodriguez (8.54 ERA) will get the start this evening. Somehow, Rodriguez is worse at home than his 8.54 ERA leads us to believe, and has allowed 11 runs over just his last two starts. I’m on the Over to hit.

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SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: Both of today’s batting lineups should put their fair share of runs on the board, friends. While Eric Lauer’s (4.83 ERA) starts have been resulting in Dodgers wins, the Over has cashed easily in his last 3 straight outings (though, this probably says more about the LA bullpen, as Lauer has only allowed 3 ERs in each…). On the other side, Seattle has put a healthy 16 runs on the board over their last 3 games. And yes, starter Emerson Hancock (3.16 ERA) has been solid as of late, but I don’t doubt the Dodgers offense will be able to get more than a few past him. My money’s on a higher scoring affair today.

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Today's Player Props

-ATL Braves v NY Mets: Chris Sale 8+ Strikeouts (+105) | 0.20 Units

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) | 0.20 Units

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Today's Picks

-HOU Astros v LA Angels Over 9.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-HOU Astros -1.5 (+120) | 0.25 Units

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers Over 9.5 (-110) | 0.5 Units

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Why These Picks?

‍

HOU Astros v LA Angels: I almost feel like taking the Over on an Angels game requires little explanation at this point, but in addition to their bullpen being brutal, Grayson Rodriguez (8.54 ERA) will get the start this evening. Somehow, Rodriguez is worse at home than his 8.54 ERA leads us to believe, and has allowed 11 runs over just his last two starts. I’m on the Over to hit, and I’ll toss a sprinkle on the Astros to win by multiple runs.

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SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: Both of today’s batting lineups should put their fair share of runs on the board, friends. While Eric Lauer’s (4.83 ERA) starts have been resulting in Dodgers wins, the Over has cashed easily in his last 3 straight outings (though, this probably says more about the LA bullpen, as Lauer has only allowed 3 ERs in each…). On the other side, Seattle has put a healthy 16 runs on the board over their last 3 games. And yes, starter Emerson Hancock (3.16 ERA) has been solid as of late, but I don’t doubt the Dodgers offense will be able to get more than a few past him. My money’s on a higher scoring affair today.

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Today's Player Props

-ATL Braves v NY Mets: Chris Sale 8+ Strikeouts (+105) | 0.20 Units

-ATL Braves v NY Mets: Christian Scott 6+ Strikeouts (+105) | 0.20 Units

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) | 0.20 Units

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Today's Parlay(s):

Parlay (+583) | 0.20 Units

-HOU Astros Team Total Over 5.5 (+110)

-CIN Reds +1.5 (-135)

-KC Royals v MIN Twins Under 9.0 (-115)

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Today's Picks

-HOU Astros v LA Angels Over 9.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-HOU Astros -1.5 (+120) | 0.25 Units

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers Over 9.5 (-110) | 0.5 Units

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Why These Picks?

‍

HOU Astros v LA Angels: I almost feel like taking the Over on an Angels game requires little explanation at this point, but in addition to their bullpen being brutal, Grayson Rodriguez (8.54 ERA) will get the start this evening. Somehow, Rodriguez is worse at home than his 8.54 ERA leads us to believe, and has allowed 11 runs over just his last two starts. I’m on the Over to hit, and I’ll toss a sprinkle on the Astros to win by multiple runs.

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SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: Both of today’s batting lineups should put their fair share of runs on the board, friends. While Eric Lauer’s (4.83 ERA) starts have been resulting in Dodgers wins, the Over has cashed easily in his last 3 straight outings (though, this probably says more about the LA bullpen, as Lauer has only allowed 3 ERs in each…). On the other side, Seattle has put a healthy 16 runs on the board over their last 3 games. And yes, starter Emerson Hancock (3.16 ERA) has been solid as of late, but I don’t doubt the Dodgers offense will be able to get more than a few past him. My money’s on a higher scoring affair today.

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Today's Player Props

-ATL Braves v NY Mets: Chris Sale 8+ Strikeouts (+105) | 0.20 Units

-ATL Braves v NY Mets: Christian Scott 6+ Strikeouts (+105) | 0.20 Units

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) | 0.20 Units

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Today's Parlay(s):

Parlay (+583) | 0.20 Units

-HOU Astros Team Total Over 5.5 (+110)

-CIN Reds +1.5 (-135)

-KC Royals v MIN Twins Under 9.0 (-115)

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Today's Picks

-HOU Astros v LA Angels Over 9.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-HOU Astros -1.5 (+120) | 0.25 Units

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers Over 9.5 (-110) | 0.5 Units

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Why These Picks?

‍

HOU Astros v LA Angels: I almost feel like taking the Over on an Angels game requires little explanation at this point, but in addition to their bullpen being brutal, Grayson Rodriguez (8.54 ERA) will get the start this evening. Somehow, Rodriguez is worse at home than his 8.54 ERA leads us to believe, and has allowed 11 runs over just his last two starts. I’m on the Over to hit, and I’ll toss a sprinkle on the Astros to win by multiple runs.

‍

SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: Both of today’s batting lineups should put their fair share of runs on the board, friends. While Eric Lauer’s (4.83 ERA) starts have been resulting in Dodgers wins, the Over has cashed easily in his last 3 straight outings (though, this probably says more about the LA bullpen, as Lauer has only allowed 3 ERs in each…). On the other side, Seattle has put a healthy 16 runs on the board over their last 3 games. And yes, starter Emerson Hancock (3.16 ERA) has been solid as of late, but I don’t doubt the Dodgers offense will be able to get more than a few past him. My money’s on a higher scoring affair today.

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Today's Player Props

-ATL Braves v NY Mets: Chris Sale 8+ Strikeouts (+105) | 0.20 Units

-ATL Braves v NY Mets: Christian Scott 6+ Strikeouts (+105) | 0.20 Units

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) | 0.20 Units

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Today's Picks

-HOU Astros v LA Angels Over 9.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-HOU Astros -1.5 (+120) | 0.25 Units

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers Over 9.5 (-110) | 0.5 Units

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Why These Picks?

‍

HOU Astros v LA Angels: I almost feel like taking the Over on an Angels game requires little explanation at this point, but in addition to their bullpen being brutal, Grayson Rodriguez (8.54 ERA) will get the start this evening. Somehow, Rodriguez is worse at home than his 8.54 ERA leads us to believe, and has allowed 11 runs over just his last two starts. I’m on the Over to hit, and I’ll toss a sprinkle on the Astros to win by multiple runs.

‍

SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: Both of today’s batting lineups should put their fair share of runs on the board, friends. While Eric Lauer’s (4.83 ERA) starts have been resulting in Dodgers wins, the Over has cashed easily in his last 3 straight outings (though, this probably says more about the LA bullpen, as Lauer has only allowed 3 ERs in each…). On the other side, Seattle has put a healthy 16 runs on the board over their last 3 games. And yes, starter Emerson Hancock (3.16 ERA) has been solid as of late, but I don’t doubt the Dodgers offense will be able to get more than a few past him. My money’s on a higher scoring affair today.

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Coffee, conversation & today’s best bet.

First Sips

And just like that…coffee tastes good again, friends! Picks cashed 3/4 last night, which included our awesome Pick of the Day return of +140. While I expected the pick to hit…I didn’t expect the Tigers to pull off a 14-run shutout 😂 Talk about best case scenario. I’ll keep today’s “first sips” brief; a fun reminder, my last sale of the entire year ends tomorrow! So if you haven’t already, go take advantage of that 40% discount on any tier with code LASTOF2026 at checkout. Football season is right around the corner 😉 Lastly, I’ll have a new podcast episode up this afternoon – keep your eyes peeled! Alright, on to today’s play… 

Pick of the Day

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers Over 9.5 (-110) | 0.5 Units

Both of today’s batting lineups should put their fair share of runs on the board, friends. While Eric Lauer’s (4.83 ERA) starts have been resulting in Dodgers wins, the Over has cashed easily in his last 3 straight outings (though, this probably says more about the LA bullpen, as Lauer has only allowed 3 ERs in each…). On the other side, Seattle has put a healthy 16 runs on the board over their last 3 games. And yes, starter Emerson Hancock (3.16 ERA) has been solid as of late, but I don’t doubt the Dodgers offense will be able to get more than a few past him. My money’s on a higher scoring affair today.

What’s Brewing?

🛒 Belle's Last Sale of 2026

That's right – this is the LAST sale I'll be running all year. Get 40% off your first month, any annual purchase, or A Lifetime of Belle until July 30 with code: LASTOF2026

🏈 Join our NFL Fantasy League, "Belles of the Ball"!

There are just a couple of spots left, friends. Full disclosure, it's a blast every year, and the cash prize is sizeable. Take a peek. 

— • —

That's all I've got for today's First Cup, friends! 

Best of luck with Pick of the Day – enjoy your coffee. 

X

Belle

‍

Today's Picks

-DET Tigers -1.5 (+140) | 0.5 Units

-LA Dodgers Team Total Over 5.5 (+110) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?

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BAL Orioles v DET Tigers: A bold play, no doubt – but I just can’t see the Orioles offense taking down Troy Melton (1.95 ERA). In addition, Baltimore will start Dean Kremer (5.06 ERA) who is worse on the road than he is at home. A quick comparison to give everyone some perspective:  Melton has allowed a mere 3 runs over his last 5 starts, Kremer has allowed 12 over his last 3. It’s another big plus money pick, but I like it. I’m on the Tigers to bounce back and win this one by at least two runs, friends.

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SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: This game is the sole reason picks are coming at you so late in the day, friends. And, believe it or not, the Dodgers still haven’t selected a starting pitcher. That said, I’m no fan of Luis Castillo (4.85 ERA) on the mound these days; LA’s batting lineup is more than capable of getting 6 runs past him and the Seattle bullpen. I’m tossing a sprinkle on the Dodgers to put at least 6 on the board here.

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Today's Player Props

-BAL Orioles v DET Tigers: Troy Melton 6+ Strikeouts (-130) | 0.25 Units

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) | 0.20 Units

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Today's Picks

-DET Tigers -1.5 (+140) | 0.5 Units

-PHI Phillies v MIA Marlins Over 8.0 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-MIA Marlins ML (-115) | 0.25 Units

-LA Dodgers Team Total Over 5.5 (+110) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?

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BAL Orioles v DET Tigers: A bold play, no doubt – but I just can’t see the Orioles offense taking down Troy Melton (1.95 ERA). In addition, Baltimore will start Dean Kremer (5.06 ERA) who is worse on the road than he is at home. A quick comparison to give everyone some perspective:  Melton has allowed a mere 3 runs over his last 5 starts, Kremer has allowed 12 over his last 3. It’s another big plus money pick, but I like it. I’m on the Tigers to bounce back and win this one by at least two runs, friends.

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PHI Phillies v MIA Marlins: The reality here is that both starters have the (likely) potential to melt early. Betting on a high-scoring affair with Aaron Nola (5.82 ERA) on the mound has seldomly been a bad wager; all 5 of his last outings have resulted in a loss for Philly. In addition, the Marlins offense had no issue with Zack Wheeler yesterday, I have to imagine Nola won’t fare much better. In addition, Sandy Alcantara has been ‘hittable’ for the majority of this season; Philly should get enough on the board to push this total to 9. I’m on the Over to hit, and since Alcantara is a bit better at home than he is overall, I’ll bet on the Marlins to bag another win.

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SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: This game is the sole reason picks are coming at you so late in the day, friends. And, believe it or not, the Dodgers still haven’t selected a starting pitcher. That said, I’m no fan of Luis Castillo (4.85 ERA) on the mound these days; LA’s batting lineup is more than capable of getting 6 runs past him and the Seattle bullpen. I’m tossing a sprinkle on the Dodgers to put at least 6 on the board here.

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Today's Player Props

-PHI Phillies v MIA Marlins: Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) | 0.20 Units

-BAL Orioles v DET Tigers: Troy Melton 6+ Strikeouts (-130) | 0.25 Units

-COL Rockies v SD Padres: Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) | 0.20 Units

-SEA Mariners v LA Dodgers: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) | 0.20 Units

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Today's Parlay(s):

Parlay (+518) | 0.20 Units

-COL Rockies v SD Padres Over 8.0 (-120)

-MIL Brewers ML (-155)

-LA Dodgers -1.5 (+105)

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