Today's Picks

-The Athletics Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-CLE Guardians v CHI White Sox Over 8.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-BOS Red Sox v SD Padres Over 7.5 (-120) | 0.25 Units

-BOS Red Sox ML (+125) | 0.25 Units

-MIA Marlins v ATL Braves Over 8.5 (-105) (GAME 2) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?‍

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The Athletics v BAL Orioles: While The Athletics are rolling with a bullpen game this evening, I do think it’s their offense that will bag the most runs. 4 of Baltimore pitcher Brandon Young’s (5.88 ERA) last 5 starts have resulted in their opponents putting at least 5 runs on the board. To boot, Young has allowed a staggering 29 hits over his last 5 games, and I fully expect the visiting squad to take advantage. My money’s on the As to bag at least 5 runs today.

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CLE Guardians v CHI White Sox: 4 of Joey Cantillo's (4.37 ERA) last 5 starts have seen at least 9 runs, and I have a sneaking suspicion the White Sox will get a hot start on him here. While a Chicago win against the Guardians would be a bit of an anomoly (Cleveland has won their last 4 straight encounters...) the White Sox are much better at bagging runs at home than they are on the road. I say they contribute enough to push today's total Over 8.5.

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BOS Red Sox v SD Padres: The Red Sox are on fire right now, friends – and as much as I like each of today's pitchers, I think both squads will find a way to put at least 4 runs on the board. In addition, I have no desire to bet against Boston at the moment – especially since Padres starter Michael King hasn't pitched in 2 months. For these reasons, I've gotta take the Over to hit here and the Red Sox to win for plus money.

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MIA Marlins v ATL Braves (GAME 2): 4 of Cardinals starter Erick Fedde's last 5 starts have seen the Over cash in spades. On the other side, Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara (6.44 ERA) has a staggering 8.86 ERA on the road. The tail end of this double header should be a high scoring affair, betting fam – I'm on the Over to hit.

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Today's Player Props

-CLE Guardians v CHI White Sox: Sean Burke Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100) | 0.5 Units

-The Athletics v BAL Orioles: Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140) | 0.15 Units

-The Athletics v BAL Orioles: Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) | 0.15 Units

-PHI Phillies v TEX Rangers: Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120) | 0.15 Units

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Today's Picks

-The Athletics Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-CLE Guardians v CHI White Sox Over 8.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-BOS Red Sox v SD Padres Over 7.5 (-120) | 0.25 Units

-BOS Red Sox ML (+125) | 0.25 Units

-MIA Marlins v ATL Braves Over 8.5 (-105) (GAME 2) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?‍

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The Athletics v BAL Orioles: While The Athletics are rolling with a bullpen game this evening, I do think it’s their offense that will bag the most runs. 4 of Baltimore pitcher Brandon Young’s (5.88 ERA) last 5 starts have resulted in their opponents putting at least 5 runs on the board. To boot, Young has allowed a staggering 29 hits over his last 5 games, and I fully expect the visiting squad to take advantage. My money’s on the As to bag at least 5 runs today.

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CLE Guardians v CHI White Sox: 4 of Joey Cantillo's (4.37 ERA) last 5 starts have seen at least 9 runs, and I have a sneaking suspicion the White Sox will get a hot start on him here. While a Chicago win against the Guardians would be a bit of an anomoly (Cleveland has won their last 4 straight encounters...) the White Sox are much better at bagging runs at home than they are on the road. I say they contribute enough to push today's total Over 8.5.

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BOS Red Sox v SD Padres: The Red Sox are on fire right now, friends – and as much as I like each of today's pitchers, I think both squads will find a way to put at least 4 runs on the board. In addition, I have no desire to bet against Boston at the moment – especially since Padres starter Michael King hasn't pitched in 2 months. For these reasons, I've gotta take the Over to hit here and the Red Sox to win for plus money.

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MIA Marlins v ATL Braves (GAME 2): 4 of Cardinals starter Erick Fedde's last 5 starts have seen the Over cash in spades. On the other side, Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara (6.44 ERA) has a staggering 8.86 ERA on the road. The tail end of this double header should be a high scoring affair, betting fam – I'm on the Over to hit.

-NY Giants v BUF Bills Over 36.5 (-110)

-HOU Texans v MIN Vikings Over 38.5 (-110)

-DAL Cowboys v LA Rams Over 33.5 (-110)

-KC Chiefs v ARZ Cardinals Over 39.5 (-110)

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Why These Pre-Season Picks?

There isn’t a single pre-season game that hasn’t cashed the Over so far, friends. If you played the Over on every single game on the board today, you’d probably fare pretty well. Having said that, these are the total plays I like the most.

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-CLE Guardians v CHI White Sox: Sean Burke Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100) | 0.5 Units

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Why This Pick?

White Sox starter Sean Burke (4.23 ERA) has managed to bag at least 5 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 outings. Burke is also one of the few pitchers who’s managed to put a whopping 8 strikeouts on the board against the Chicago Cubs (back on July 27). To be frank, the Guardians should be a walk in the park in comparison. I say he puts at least 5Ks on the board this evening.  

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I'd say tonight's "nightcap" is necessary, friends. Baseball was brutal – so much so that I'm thrilled that I sent NFL Pre-Season picks out this afternoon 😂 "Belle's NFL Pre-Season Potpourri 💐" did far better than today's MLB picks! For those that tailed, a big congrats to you.

I'm also really glad that I put the pre-season picks out to my free-tier friends as well 😊 – certainly softened the blow of today's 'Pick of the Day' loss. 👊🏽

Speaking of 'Pick of the Day' – I've fully updated July 2025's Pick of the Day spreadsheet results. Comically, as rough of a run as POTD seemed to have there...it still came out of last month basically even 🤣 It really did feel worse than it actually was; overall, Pick of the Day is still "green" for the year to date.

For those asking, yes – I'll be sending out another round of NFL Pre-Season picks for Saturday's games. Football is on all day 🔥🤩🏈

Lastly, while we're on the topic of football, 🏈🛎️ THERE ARE 2 SPOTS LEFT in my annual "Belles of the Ball" Fantasy Football League! If you'd like to join us, simply sign up here.

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The buy-in is $50, and the grand prize is a beautiful $600USD bag (of cash!) 😉💰 Once you've signed up, our beloved commissioner will send you a link to our league on the "Sleeper" app!

Alright friends, I think that's all I've got for this evening. Let's walk off the tough MLB day – we'll get the books back tomorrow.

Cheers – and as always, I'll see you all bright and early!

X

Belle

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🔥 Want all of my picks, props & parlays?
👉 Upgrade your tier anytime under ‘My Account’

‍🎓 Ready to level up your game?
📚 Check out Belle’s Online Betting Course

💬 Enjoying Belle’s Picks?
☕ Buy Belle a Coffee

‍

Happy Friday, friends! The NFL Pre-Season is upon us – and while I don't recommend placing large wagers on pre-season games, a number of you have asked for some "degen pre-season" picks 🤪 I've been dropping my pre-season picks in Discord, but by popular demand have decided to send them out in post as well (for those on my Free tier, too!) So without further ado, here's what I've got for tonight:

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-DET Lions v ATL Falcons Over 32.5 (-110)

-CLE Browns v CAR Panthers Over 33.5 (-110)

-WAS Commanders v NE Patriots Over 37.0 (-110)

-WAS Commanders +6.5 (-105)

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Cheers everyone, and have fun!

X

Belle

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Today's Picks

-CHI Cubs -1.5 (+110) | 0.25 Units

-CHI Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) | 0.5 Units

-CIN Reds v PIT Pirates Over 7.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-TOR Blue Jays v LA Dodgers Over 9.0 (+100) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?

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CHI Cubs v STL Cardinals: St. Louis Starter Michael McGreevy (5.08 ERA)  has allowed 11 runs in just his last two starts, friends. On the other side, Cubs starter Matthew Boyd (2.34 ERA) is an impressive 11-4, and has allowed 5 runs across his last 5 starts. Boyd notably got blown up by the Milwaukee Brewers on July 28th, but has allowed 0 runs in 4 of his last 5 outings. The Over has cashed in 4 of McGreevy’s last 5 starts – but to be frank, I don’t think the Cardinals will get much past Boyd today. If the Over cashes it will likely be the Cubs’ doing. I know the Chicago offense has been a bit shaky lately, but this is the perfect spot for them to turn up. My money’s on the visitors to cover the RL & put at least 5 on the board.

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CIN Reds v PIT Pirates: This might be the strangest line on the board today – a trap? Maybe – but to be honest, I understand why it is where it is. For starters, I can’t imagine either of these pitchers keeping this game Under 7.5. The Reds offense can be dangerous when they want to be, and I have no doubt they give Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller (3.89 ERA) a run for his money. Keller has allowed 8 runs in just his last two starts – and oddly, while Chase Burns’ (6.04 ERA) last 5 outings have resulted in a loss for the Reds, not a single one made it Over 7 runs. Having said that, the Pirates offense is undoubtedly at their best at home. A gamble for sure, I wouldn’t blame you for sitting this one out –  but one that might pay off early. I’m on the Over to hit.

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TOR Blue Jays v LA Dodgers: This game either lands right on 9 runs, or goes Over in my opinion. The Blue Jays offense is hitting the ball far too well right now for me to take the Under. To boot, the Jays have seen the Over cash in 8 of their last 10 games – and I have no doubt the Dodgers put enough on the board to push this total to or past 9. I'll take a stab at the Over for plus money.

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Today's Player Props

-LA Angels v DET Tigers: Tarik Skubal 10+ Strikeouts (+130) | 0.20 Units

-LA Angels v DET Tigers: Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) | 0.15 Units

-CHI Cubs v STL Cardinals: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) | 0.15 Units

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Today's Parlay(s):

Parlay (+669) | 0.20 Units

-TOR Blue Jays +1.5 (-170)

-MIA Marlins v ATL Braves Over 8.0 (-115)

-The Athletics v BAL Orioles Over 9.0 (alternate total) (-180) 

-CHI Cubs ML (-150)

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Today's Picks

-CHI Cubs -1.5 (+110) | 0.25 Units

-CHI Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) | 0.5 Units

-CIN Reds v PIT Pirates Over 7.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-TOR Blue Jays v LA Dodgers Over 9.0 (+100) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?

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CHI Cubs v STL Cardinals: St. Louis Starter Michael McGreevy (5.08 ERA)  has allowed 11 runs in just his last two starts, friends. On the other side, Cubs starter Matthew Boyd (2.34 ERA) is an impressive 11-4, and has allowed 5 runs across his last 5 starts. Boyd notably got blown up by the Milwaukee Brewers on July 28th, but has allowed 0 runs in 4 of his last 5 outings. The Over has cashed in 4 of McGreevy’s last 5 starts – but to be frank, I don’t think the Cardinals will get much past Boyd today. If the Over cashes it will likely be the Cubs’ doing. I know the Chicago offense has been a bit shaky lately, but this is the perfect spot for them to turn up. My money’s on the visitors to cover the RL & put at least 5 on the board.

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CIN Reds v PIT Pirates: This might be the strangest line on the board today – a trap? Maybe – but to be honest, I understand why it is where it is. For starters, I can’t imagine either of these pitchers keeping this game Under 7.5. The Reds offense can be dangerous when they want to be, and I have no doubt they give Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller (3.89 ERA) a run for his money. Keller has allowed 8 runs in just his last two starts – and oddly, while Chase Burns’ (6.04 ERA) last 5 outings have resulted in a loss for the Reds, not a single one made it Over 7 runs. Having said that, the Pirates offense is undoubtedly at their best at home. A gamble for sure, I wouldn’t blame you for sitting this one out –  but one that might pay off early. I’m on the Over to hit.

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TOR Blue Jays v LA Dodgers: This game either lands right on 9 runs, or goes Over in my opinion. The Blue Jays offense is hitting the ball far too well right now for me to take the Under. To boot, the Jays have seen the Over cash in 8 of their last 10 games – and I have no doubt the Dodgers put enough on the board to push this total to or past 9. I'll take a stab at the Over for plus money.

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Today's Player Props

-LA Angels v DET Tigers: Tarik Skubal 10+ Strikeouts (+130) | 0.20 Units

-LA Angels v DET Tigers: Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) | 0.15 Units

-CHI Cubs v STL Cardinals: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) | 0.15 Units

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Today's Parlay(s):

Parlay (+669) | 0.20 Units

-TOR Blue Jays +1.5 (-170)

-MIA Marlins v ATL Braves Over 8.0 (-115)

-The Athletics v BAL Orioles Over 9.0 (alternate total) (-180) 

-CHI Cubs ML (-150)

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Today's Picks

-CHI Cubs -1.5 (+110) | 0.25 Units

-CHI Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) | 0.5 Units

-CIN Reds v PIT Pirates Over 7.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-TOR Blue Jays v LA Dodgers Over 9.0 (+100) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?

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CHI Cubs v STL Cardinals: St. Louis Starter Michael McGreevy (5.08 ERA)  has allowed 11 runs in just his last two starts, friends. On the other side, Cubs starter Matthew Boyd (2.34 ERA) is an impressive 11-4, and has allowed 5 runs across his last 5 starts. Boyd notably got blown up by the Milwaukee Brewers on July 28th, but has allowed 0 runs in 4 of his last 5 outings. The Over has cashed in 4 of McGreevy’s last 5 starts – but to be frank, I don’t think the Cardinals will get much past Boyd today. If the Over cashes it will likely be the Cubs’ doing. I know the Chicago offense has been a bit shaky lately, but this is the perfect spot for them to turn up. My money’s on the visitors to cover the RL & put at least 5 on the board.

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CIN Reds v PIT Pirates: This might be the strangest line on the board today – a trap? Maybe – but to be honest, I understand why it is where it is. For starters, I can’t imagine either of these pitchers keeping this game Under 7.5. The Reds offense can be dangerous when they want to be, and I have no doubt they give Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller (3.89 ERA) a run for his money. Keller has allowed 8 runs in just his last two starts – and oddly, while Chase Burns’ (6.04 ERA) last 5 outings have resulted in a loss for the Reds, not a single one made it Over 7 runs. Having said that, the Pirates offense is undoubtedly at their best at home. A gamble for sure, I wouldn’t blame you for sitting this one out –  but one that might pay off early. I’m on the Over to hit.

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TOR Blue Jays v LA Dodgers: This game either lands right on 9 runs, or goes Over in my opinion. The Blue Jays offense is hitting the ball far too well right now for me to take the Under. To boot, the Jays have seen the Over cash in 8 of their last 10 games – and I have no doubt the Dodgers put enough on the board to push this total to or past 9. I'll take a stab at the Over for plus money.

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Today's Player Props

-LA Angels v DET Tigers: Tarik Skubal 10+ Strikeouts (+130) | 0.20 Units

-LA Angels v DET Tigers: Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) | 0.15 Units

-CHI Cubs v STL Cardinals: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) | 0.15 Units

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Today's Picks

-CHI Cubs -1.5 (+110) | 0.25 Units

-CHI Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) | 0.5 Units

-CIN Reds v PIT Pirates Over 7.5 (-115) | 0.25 Units

-TOR Blue Jays v LA Dodgers Over 9.0 (+100) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?

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CHI Cubs v STL Cardinals: St. Louis Starter Michael McGreevy (5.08 ERA)  has allowed 11 runs in just his last two starts, friends. On the other side, Cubs starter Matthew Boyd (2.34 ERA) is an impressive 11-4, and has allowed 5 runs across his last 5 starts. Boyd notably got blown up by the Milwaukee Brewers on July 28th, but has allowed 0 runs in 4 of his last 5 outings. The Over has cashed in 4 of McGreevy’s last 5 starts – but to be frank, I don’t think the Cardinals will get much past Boyd today. If the Over cashes it will likely be the Cubs’ doing. I know the Chicago offense has been a bit shaky lately, but this is the perfect spot for them to turn up. My money’s on the visitors to cover the RL & put at least 5 on the board.

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CIN Reds v PIT Pirates: This might be the strangest line on the board today – a trap? Maybe – but to be honest, I understand why it is where it is. For starters, I can’t imagine either of these pitchers keeping this game Under 7.5. The Reds offense can be dangerous when they want to be, and I have no doubt they give Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller (3.89 ERA) a run for his money. Keller has allowed 8 runs in just his last two starts – and oddly, while Chase Burns’ (6.04 ERA) last 5 outings have resulted in a loss for the Reds, not a single one made it Over 7 runs. Having said that, the Pirates offense is undoubtedly at their best at home. A gamble for sure, I wouldn’t blame you for sitting this one out –  but one that might pay off early. I’m on the Over to hit.

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TOR Blue Jays v LA Dodgers: This game either lands right on 9 runs, or goes Over in my opinion. The Blue Jays offense is hitting the ball far too well right now for me to take the Under. To boot, the Jays have seen the Over cash in 8 of their last 10 games – and I have no doubt the Dodgers put enough on the board to push this total to or past 9. I'll take a stab at the Over for plus money.