Coffee, conversation & today’s best bet.

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First Sips

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Good morning, everyone! Happy Friday 🙌🏼 And, I think I speak for everyone when I say, “WTF happened to Minnesota last night?” I don’t think I’ve ever actually seen Aaron Nola allow just 1 run in a game AND WIN? No joke, the last time he allowed a single run was against Miami and Miami still managed to bag the victory (lol). The Twins have to be doing some serious self reflection after that game, my god. On another note, I’m nearly done fine-tuning our app and its website for download! I feel like I say this every day, but it’s coming, I swear! I’ve also put together a number of “founding user” perks – it’s worth the wait, I assure you. Alright friends, on to today’s play…

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Pick of the Day

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-DET Tigers Team Total Over 4.5 (-110) | 0.5 Units

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It’s not hard to picture a world where the Tigers run up an early score against the White Sox and their bullpen. Detroit Pitcher Jackson Jobe’s (0.00 ERA) only start this season was an 8-0 win against the SF Giants; he pitched 5 innings and didn’t allow a single run. Now, the sample size being absolutely minuscule is the only thing stopping me from hopping the RL, but I’ll happily toss some cash on the explosive Tigers offense in this spot. Take Detroit to put at least 5 on the board.

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What’s Brewing?

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🎙️ New Episode of "Your Bettor Half"

My podcast is up on Spotify! Come take a listen.

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That's all I've got for today's First Cup, friends!

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Best of luck with Pick of the Day – enjoy your coffee.

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X

Belle

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💰 Get your $100 Deposit Match from Belle & Sleeper: https://sleeper.com/promo/BELLESPICKS

🔥 Want all of my picks, props & parlays?
👉 Upgrade your tier anytime under ‘My Account’

‍🎓 Ready to level up your game?
📚 Check out Belle’s Online Betting Course

💬 Enjoying Belle’s Picks?
☕ Buy Belle a Coffee

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Today's Picks

-MIN Twins ML (-105) | 0.5 Units

-MIL Brewers v LA Dodgers Under 8.0 (-115) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?

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PHI Phillies v MIN Twins: The Phillies have lost way too many games with Aaron Nola (5.47 ERA) on the mound, friends. Nola is a tad better on the road than he is at home, but Minnesota starter Taj Bradley (3.76 ERA) is a very respectable 3-1 at home and 9-4 overall. Betting against the home squad makes little sense in this equation as far as I’m concerned; I’m on the Twins to bag a win.

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MIL Brewers v LA Dodgers: 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams have seen less than 7 runs…that’s an overwhelming statistic. And, I’ll admit, I’m not a huge fan of either of today’s starters, but none of Roki Sasaki’s (4.54 ERA) last 5 starts made it over 8 runs. I’m tossing a sprinkle on the Under to cash here.

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Today's Player Props

-PHI Phillies v MIN Twins: Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) | 0.20 Units

-TEX Rangers v LA Angels: Jacob deGrom 8+ Strikeouts (-135) | 0.25 Units

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Today's Parlay(s):

Parlay (+500) | 0.20 Units

-LA Dodgers ML (-140)

-TEX Rangers v LA Angels Under 7.5 (-120) 

-PHI Phillies v MIN Twins Over 8.5 (-110)

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Today's Picks

-MIN Twins ML (-105) | 0.5 Units

-MIL Brewers v LA Dodgers Under 8.0 (-115) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?

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PHI Phillies v MIN Twins: The Phillies have lost way too many games with Aaron Nola (5.47 ERA) on the mound, friends. Nola is a tad better on the road than he is at home, but Minnesota starter Taj Bradley (3.76 ERA) is a very respectable 3-1 at home and 9-4 overall. Betting against the home squad makes little sense in this equation as far as I’m concerned; I’m on the Twins to bag a win.

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MIL Brewers v LA Dodgers: 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams have seen less than 7 runs…that’s an overwhelming statistic. And, I’ll admit, I’m not a huge fan of either of today’s starters, but none of Roki Sasaki’s (4.54 ERA) last 5 starts made it over 8 runs. I’m tossing a sprinkle on the Under to cash here.

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Today's Player Props

-PHI Phillies v MIN Twins: Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) | 0.20 Units

-TEX Rangers v LA Angels: Jacob deGrom 8+ Strikeouts (-135) | 0.25 Units

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Today's Parlay(s):

Parlay (+500) | 0.20 Units

-LA Dodgers ML (-140)

-TEX Rangers v LA Angels Under 7.5 (-120) 

-PHI Phillies v MIN Twins Over 8.5 (-110)

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Today's Picks

-MIN Twins ML (-105) | 0.5 Units

-MIL Brewers v LA Dodgers Under 8.0 (-115) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?

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PHI Phillies v MIN Twins: The Phillies have lost way too many games with Aaron Nola (5.47 ERA) on the mound, friends. Nola is a tad better on the road than he is at home, but Minnesota starter Taj Bradley (3.76 ERA) is a very respectable 3-1 at home and 9-4 overall. Betting against the home squad makes little sense in this equation as far as I’m concerned; I’m on the Twins to bag a win.

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MIL Brewers v LA Dodgers: 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams have seen less than 7 runs…that’s an overwhelming statistic. And, I’ll admit, I’m not a huge fan of either of today’s starters, but none of Roki Sasaki’s (4.54 ERA) last 5 starts made it over 8 runs. I’m tossing a sprinkle on the Under to cash here.

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Today's Player Props

-PHI Phillies v MIN Twins: Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) | 0.20 Units

-TEX Rangers v LA Angels: Jacob deGrom 8+ Strikeouts (-135) | 0.25 Units

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Today's Picks

-MIN Twins ML (-105) | 0.5 Units

-MIL Brewers v LA Dodgers Under 8.0 (-115) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?

‍

PHI Phillies v MIN Twins: The Phillies have lost way too many games with Aaron Nola (5.47 ERA) on the mound, friends. Nola is a tad better on the road than he is at home, but Minnesota starter Taj Bradley (3.76 ERA) is a very respectable 3-1 at home and 9-4 overall. Betting against the home squad makes little sense in this equation as far as I’m concerned; I’m on the Twins to bag a win.

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MIL Brewers v LA Dodgers: 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams have seen less than 7 runs…that’s an overwhelming statistic. And, I’ll admit, I’m not a huge fan of either of today’s starters, but none of Roki Sasaki’s (4.54 ERA) last 5 starts made it over 8 runs. I’m tossing a sprinkle on the Under to cash here.

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Today's Player Props

-PHI Phillies v MIN Twins: Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) | 0.20 Units

-TEX Rangers v LA Angels: Jacob deGrom 8+ Strikeouts (-135) | 0.25 Units

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Today's Picks

-MIN Twins ML (-105) | 0.5 Units

-MIL Brewers v LA Dodgers Under 8.0 (-115) | 0.25 Units

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Why These Picks?

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PHI Phillies v MIN Twins: The Phillies have lost way too many games with Aaron Nola (5.47 ERA) on the mound, friends. Nola is a tad better on the road than he is at home, but Minnesota starter Taj Bradley (3.76 ERA) is a very respectable 3-1 at home and 9-4 overall. Betting against the home squad makes little sense in this equation as far as I’m concerned; I’m on the Twins to bag a win.

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MIL Brewers v LA Dodgers: 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams have seen less than 7 runs…that’s an overwhelming statistic. And, I’ll admit, I’m not a huge fan of either of today’s starters, but none of Roki Sasaki’s (4.54 ERA) last 5 starts made it over 8 runs. I’m tossing a sprinkle on the Under to cash here.

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Coffee, conversation & today’s best bet.

First Sips

Good afternoon, friends – yes, my first sips are happening just before noon PST (believe it or not!) This morning was filled with finalizing details for the app launch (LFG); your days of having to check your email for picks are coming to a close. Of course, you still can if you’d like to…but I know a large number of you are chomping at the bit for a push notification when picks drop 😆 The wait is almost over! In the meantime, here’s today’s play…

Pick of the Day

-MIN Twins ML (-105) | 0.5 Units

Why This Pick?

The Phillies have lost way too many games with Aaron Nola (5.47 ERA) on the mound, friends. Nola is a tad better on the road than he is at home, but Minnesota starter Taj Bradley (3.76 ERA) is a very respectable 3-1 at home and 9-4 overall. Betting against the home squad makes little sense in this equation as far as I’m concerned; I’m on the Twins to bag a win. 

What’s Brewing?

🎙️ New Episode of "Your Bettor Half"

My podcast is up on Spotify! Come take a listen. 

— • —

That's all I've got for today's First Cup, friends! 

Best of luck with Pick of the Day – enjoy your coffee. 

X

Belle

‍

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💰 Get your $100 Deposit Match from Belle & Sleeper: https://sleeper.com/promo/BELLESPICKS

🔥 Want all of my picks, props & parlays?
👉 Upgrade your tier anytime under ‘My Account’

‍🎓 Ready to level up your game?
📚 Check out Belle’s Online Betting Course

💬 Enjoying Belle’s Picks?
☕ Buy Belle a Coffee

‍

Today's Picks

-BAL Orioles ML (-108) | 0.25 Units

-TB Rays Team Total Over 5.5 (-110) | 0.5 Units

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Why These Picks?

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BAL Orioles v MIN Twins: This game belongs to Baltimore in my opinion. I admit, Zebby Matthews (5.23 ERA) pitches a far better game at home than he does on the road, and Orioles starter Shane Baz (3.76 ERA) is just 1-7 away from Baltimore (somehow). That said, Baz hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs in any of his last 5 starts, and I'm no fan of the Minnesota bullpen. I’m gonna roll with the Orioles to win.

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TB Rays v Athletics: The Tampa Bay offense vs. the Athletics bullpen? Again, this is another “it feels too good to be true,” pick, but the Rays are delivering. Tampa has put at least 10 runs on the board in both games of this series; until they stop cashing, I don’t think I’m getting off this train. It’s worth nothing that while Jack Perkins (7.04 ERA) is a member of the Athletics BP, he’s been known to pitch up to 5 innings. That said, Perkins has allowed 11 runs over just his last two starts, and the Athletics have allowed at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 6 losses. To be frank, I don’t think the As are winning this encounter with Rasmussen on the mound for the Rays. I’m on Tampa to put at least 6 in the bag this afternoon.

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Today's Player Props

-TB Rays v Athletics: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) | 0.20 Units

-Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) | 0.20 Units

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Today's Picks

-BAL Orioles v MIN Twins Under 9.0 (-120) | 0.25 Units

-BAL Orioles ML (-108) | 0.25 Units

-TB Rays Team Total Over 5.5 (-110) | 0.5 Units

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Why These Picks?

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BAL Orioles v MIN Twins: This game belongs to Baltimore in my opinion. I admit, Zebby Matthews (5.23 ERA) pitches a far better game at home than he does on the road, and Orioles starter Shane Baz (3.76 ERA) is just 1-7 away from Baltimore (somehow). That said, Baz hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs in any of his last 5 starts, and while I don’t typically love Matthews on the mound, I think this game stays Under 9.0 this afternoon (largely in part due to how much better Matthews is on his own turf). I’m gonna roll with the Orioles to win, and the Under to hit.

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TB Rays v Athletics: The Tampa Bay offense vs. the Athletics bullpen? Again, this is another “it feels too good to be true,” pick, but the Rays are delivering. Tampa has put at least 10 runs on the board in both games of this series; until they stop cashing, I don’t think I’m getting off this train. It’s worth nothing that while Jack Perkins (7.04 ERA) is a member of the Athletics BP, he’s been known to pitch up to 5 innings. That said, Perkins has allowed 11 runs over just his last two starts, and the Athletics have allowed at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 6 losses. To be frank, I don’t think the As are winning this encounter with Rasmussen on the mound for the Rays. I’m on Tampa to put at least 6 in the bag this afternoon.

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Today's Player Props

-PHI Phillies v STL Cardinals: Zack Wheeler 7+ Strikeouts (+140) | 0.20 Units

-TB Rays v Athletics: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) | 0.20 Units

-Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) | 0.20 Units

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Today's Parlay(s):

Parlay (+492) | 0.20 Units

-TB Rays -1.5 (-135)

-DET Tigers ML (-120) 

-KC Royals v LA Dodgers Over 9.0 (-115)

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Today's Picks

-BAL Orioles v MIN Twins Under 9.0 (-120) | 0.25 Units

-BAL Orioles ML (-108) | 0.25 Units

-TB Rays Team Total Over 5.5 (-110) | 0.5 Units

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Why These Picks?

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BAL Orioles v MIN Twins: This game belongs to Baltimore in my opinion. I admit, Zebby Matthews (5.23 ERA) pitches a far better game at home than he does on the road, and Orioles starter Shane Baz (3.76 ERA) is just 1-7 away from Baltimore (somehow). That said, Baz hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs in any of his last 5 starts, and while I don’t typically love Matthews on the mound, I think this game stays Under 9.0 this afternoon (largely in part due to how much better Matthews is on his own turf). I’m gonna roll with the Orioles to win, and the Under to hit.

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TB Rays v Athletics: The Tampa Bay offense vs. the Athletics bullpen? Again, this is another “it feels too good to be true,” pick, but the Rays are delivering. Tampa has put at least 10 runs on the board in both games of this series; until they stop cashing, I don’t think I’m getting off this train. It’s worth nothing that while Jack Perkins (7.04 ERA) is a member of the Athletics BP, he’s been known to pitch up to 5 innings. That said, Perkins has allowed 11 runs over just his last two starts, and the Athletics have allowed at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 6 losses. To be frank, I don’t think the As are winning this encounter with Rasmussen on the mound for the Rays. I’m on Tampa to put at least 6 in the bag this afternoon.

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Today's Player Props

-PHI Phillies v STL Cardinals: Zack Wheeler 7+ Strikeouts (+140) | 0.20 Units

-TB Rays v Athletics: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) | 0.20 Units

-Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) | 0.20 Units

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Today's Parlay(s):

Parlay (+492) | 0.20 Units

-TB Rays -1.5 (-135)

-DET Tigers ML (-120) 

-KC Royals v LA Dodgers Over 9.0 (-115)

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